Are We Heading Towards A Bubble?
The US housing market has been going gangbusters in recent years. Record-setting sales, record-setting home prices, and a market that has largely favored sellers, while forcing fierce competition among buyers. All of this has led some to worry that we are heading towards another housing bubble. So, are we? On Tuesday, September 25, at 11 AM PST, Windermere Real Estate is hosting a Facebook Live event where our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, will discuss this and the latest Case-Schiller housing report. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, homeowner, or just a real estate junky, tune in to see what Matthew has to say; he’ll also be taking questions from the audience. This is the first in a series of Facebook Live events with Matthew, which will take place on the last Tuesday of each month.
You can learn more and offer suggestions for future discussions by following the link to the event here.
How to Acquire the Right Appraisal for Your Home
Appraisals are designed to protect buyers, sellers, and lending institutions. They provide a reliable, independent valuation of a tract of land and the structure on it, whether it’s a house or a skyscraper. Below, you will find information about the appraisal process, what goes into them, their benefits and some tips on how to help make an appraisal go smoothly and efficiently.
Appraised value vs. market value
The appraised value of a property is what the bank thinks it’s worth, and that amount is determined by a professional, third-party appraiser. The appraiser’s valuation is based on a combination of comparative market sales and inspection of the property.
Market value, on the other hand, is what a buyer is willing to pay for a home or what homes of comparable value are selling for. A home’s appraised value and its market value are typically not the same. In fact, sometimes the appraised value is very different. An appraisal provides you with an invaluable reality check.
If you are in the process of setting the price of your home, you can gain some peace-of-mind by consulting an independent appraiser. Show him comparative values for your neighborhood, relevant documents, and give him a tour of your home, just as you would show it to a prospective buyer.
What information goes into an appraisal?
Professional appraisers consult a range of information sources, including multiple listing services, county tax assessor records, county courthouse records, and appraisal data records, in addition to talking to local real estate professionals.
They also conduct an inspection. Typically an appraiser’s inspection focuses on:
- The condition of the property and home, inside and out
- The home’s layout and features
- Home updates
- Overall quality of construction
- Estimate of the home’s square footage (the gross living area “GLA”; garages and unfinished basements are estimated separately)
- Permanent fixtures (for example, in-ground pools, as opposed to above-ground pools)
After considering all such information, the appraiser arrives at three different dollar amounts – one for the value of the land, one for the value of the structure, and one for their combined value. In many cases, the land will be worth more than the structure.
One thing to bear in mind is that an appraisal is not a substitute for a home inspection. An appraiser does a cursory assessment of a house and property. For a more detailed inspection, consult with a home inspector and/or a specialist in the area of concern.
Who pays and how long does it take?
The buyer usually pays for the appraisal unless they have negotiated otherwise. Depending on the lender, the appraisal may be paid in advance or incorporated into the application fee; some are due on delivery and some are billed at closing. Typical costs range from $275-$600, but this can vary from region to region.
An inspection usually takes anywhere from 15 minutes to several hours, depending on the size and complexity of your property. In addition, the appraiser spends time pulling up county records for the values of the houses around you. A full report comes to your loan officer, a real estate agent or lender within about a week.
If you are the seller, you won’t get a copy of an appraisal ordered by a buyer. Under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, however, the buyer has the right to get a copy of the appraisal, but they must request it. Typically the requested appraisal is provided at closing.
What if the appraisal is too low?
If your appraisal comes in too low it can be a problem. Usually, the seller’s and the buyer’s real estate agents respond by looking for recent and pending sales of comparable homes. Sometimes this can influence the appraisal. If the final appraisal is well below what you have agreed to pay, you can renegotiate the contract or cancel it.
Where do you find a qualified appraiser?
Your bank or lending institution will find and hire an appraiser; Federal regulatory guidelines do not allow borrowers to order and provide an appraisal to a bank for lending purposes. If you want an appraisal for your own personal reasons and not to secure a mortgage or buy a homeowner’s insurance policy, you can do the hiring yourself. You can contact your lending institution and they can recommend qualified appraisers and you can choose one yourself or you can call your local Windermere Real Estate agent and they can make a recommendation for you. Once you have the name of some appraisers you can verify their status on the Federal Appraisal Subcommittee website.
Tips for hassle-free appraisals:
- What can you do to make the appraisal process as smooth and efficient as possible? Make sure you provide your appraiser with the information he or she needs to get the job done. Get out your important documents and start checking off a list that includes the following:
- A brief explanation of why you’re getting an appraisal
- The date you’d like your appraisal to be completed
- A copy of your deed, survey, purchase agreement, or other papers that pertain to the property
- If you have a mortgage, your lender, the year you got your mortgage, the amount, the type of mortgage (FHA, VA, etc.), your interest rate, and any additional financing you have
- A copy of your current real estate tax bill, statement of special assessments, balance owing and on what (for example, sewer, water)
- Tell your appraiser if your property is listed for sale and if so, your asking price and listing agency
- Any personal property that is included
- If you’re selling an income-producing property, a breakdown of income and expenses for the last year or two and a copy of leases
- A copy of the original house plans and specifications
- A list of recent improvements and their costs
- Any other information you feel may be relevant
By doing your homework, compiling the information your appraiser needs, and providing it at the beginning of the process, you can minimize unnecessary phone calls and delays and get the information you need quickly and satisfactorily!
5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market
Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?
It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning:
1. First Time Home Buyers
As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.
2. Easing Credit Standards
Rising interest rates may actually push some lenders to modestly ease credit standards. I know this statement will cause some people to think that easing credit will immediately send us back to the days of sub-prime lending and housing bubbles, but I don’t see this happening. Even a very modest easing of credit will allow for more than one million new home buyers to qualify for a mortgage.
3. Low Unemployment
We stand today in a country with very low unemployment (currently 4.0% and likely to get close to 3.5% by year’s end). Low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages to keep existing talent, as well as to recruit new talent. Wage growth can, to a degree, offset increasing interest rates because, as wages rise, buyers can afford higher mortgage payments.
There is a clear relationship between housing supply, home prices, and interest rates. We’re already seeing a shift in inventory levels with more homes coming on the market, and I fully expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. This increase in supply is, in part, a result of homeowners looking to cash in on their home’s appreciation before interest rates rise too far. This, on its own, will help ease the growth of home prices and offset rising interest rates. Furthermore, if we start to see more new construction activity at the lower end of the market, this too will help.
National versus Local
Up until this point, I’ve looked at how rising interest rates might impact the housing market on a national level, but as we all know, real estate is local, and different markets react to shifts in different ways. For example, rising interest rates will be felt more in expensive housing markets, such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and Orange County, but I expect to see less impact in areas like Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Detroit, where buyers spend a lower percentage of their incomes on housing. The exception to this would be if interest rates continue to rise for a prolonged period; in that case, we might see demand start to taper off, especially in the less expensive housing markets where buyers are more price sensitive.
For more than seven years, home buyers and real estate professionals alike have grown very accustomed to historically low interest rates. We always knew the time would come when they would begin to rise again, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for housing is doom and gloom. On the contrary, I believe rising interest rates will help bring us closer to a more balanced real estate market, something that is sorely needed in many markets across the country.
The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
The State of Oregon has added 30,400 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing a reasonable annual growth rate of 1.6%. It is clear, however, that job growth in Oregon has started to taper, with the annual rate dropping below 2% in the early spring of this year. This is no great cause for concern as the state has essentially reached full employment, which tends to slow employment growth.
The Southwest Washington market area added 5,580 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.7%.
Oregon’s unemployment rate was 4.0% in June, marginally below the 4.1% rate seen a year ago. In Southwest Washington, the unemployment rate was measured at 5.3%, marginally lower than the year-ago rate of 5.4%.
HOME SALES ACTIVITY
- Second quarter home sales dropped by a modest 2.8% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 17,156 transactions occurring.
- Sales rose the most in Skamania County, which saw a 40% increase compared to the second quarter of 2017. There were also noticeable increases in Cowlitz, Klamath, and Linn counties. Home sales fell the most in Tillamook, Klickitat, Crook, Josephine, and Jefferson counties.
- Year-over-year sales rose in 10 counties and dropped in the other 16 counties contained in this report.
- Sales continue to be a mixed bag in the region. I am not overly concerned by the drop in sales in several counties as they are all small markets that are prone to substantial swings. Inventory remains tight and this can drag home sales lower.
- The average home price in the region rose 7.9% year-over-year to $391,725. That number is 6.6% higher than the first quarter of 2018.
- Clatsop County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 22.6% more than a year ago.
- All but four counties saw price growth relative to the second quarter of 2017, with 10 of them experiencing double-digit increases.
- The takeaway from this report is that, in aggregate, price growth has started to slow but remains above the long-term average.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by four days compared to the second quarter of 2017 and was down by 17 days from the first quarter of 2018.
- The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 71 days.
- Nineteen counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop or remain static when compared to a year ago. Seven counties saw market time rise.
- Homes again sold the fastest in Washington (20 days), Clark (26 days), and Multnomah (26 days) counties.
The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Housing markets throughout Oregon and Southwest Washington continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy. Home sales remain solid; however, we are seeing some slowdown in prices, which I consider to be positive as affordability issues could start to taper. That said, housing inventory is still well below balanced-market levels. Sellers remain in the driver’s seat, but I am hopeful that inventory levels will start to increase, which will be a relief to home buyers. Because of this, the needle remains the same as last quarter.
Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residentialmarket analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?
When Buying a Short Sale Home is the Right Fit
Purchasing a home can feel overwhelming at times, but a short sale home offers a unique opportunity for a prospective buyer. A short sale occurs when a homeowner owes a lender more than their home is worth, and the lender agrees to let the owner sell the home and accept less than what is owed. Lenders may agree to a short sale because they believe it will net them more money than going forward with a lengthy and costly foreclosure process.
Short sales do differ in a number of ways from conventional home sales. Here are a few things to consider if you’re thinking about buying a short sale property.
- Short sale homes sell for less, but not significantly less than market value.
Buyers hoping to snap up a home for half the market value will be disappointed. The selling price for short sales averages about 10 percent less than for non-distressed properties. The bank is looking to recover as much of the value of the home as possible, so they will not accept offers that are significantly under market value. That said, with savings that can equal tens of thousands of dollars, a short sale is a great way to get more house for your money.
- Short sale properties are sold “as is”.
The lender will not be making repairs to the home. Any improvements that need to be made are most likely going to be the responsibility of the buyer. A savvy buyer’s agent/broker will get contractor bids for any necessary repairs and use those to help negotiate a lower sales price with the bank.
- A short sale will take longer than a conventional home sale.
Once you and the seller have mutual acceptance on an offer, you need to allow 60 to 90 days for the lender approval process. There are often long stretches when the offer is slowly winding its way through the bank’s system, so buyers need to be patient.
- If you have to sell your home first, a short sale is probably not the best fit.
Lenders generally will not take contingent offers on a short sale.
- A short sale is one real estate transaction that you shouldn’t attempt on your own.
Short sales are complicated transactions that involve a different process and significantly more paperwork than a standard real estate sale. An agent/broker that is unfamiliar with short sales can write an offer in such a way that they inadvertently cause their buyers to lose the deal. An experienced short sale agent/broker will protect your interest and help the process move forward smoothly.
The bottom line: As long as you can be patient, and are working with an agent/broker who understands the process, buying a short sale is a great way to purchase the house you want at a price you’ll love.
How to Get Started in Real Estate Investing
Investing in real estate is one of the world’s most venerable pathways to building wealth. When properly managed, income from renting or real estate investment trusts can provide you with the financial security to plan out the rest of your life. The conclusion is easy to envision, but knowing where to begin can be overwhelming, particularly for anyone who has never previously owned a home.
At Windermere our goal is always to improve and support our communities, so we’ve put together a few key things to keep in mind as you enter the world of real estate investment.
Know the right type of investment for you
Investing in real estate needn’t commit you to being a landlord. A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a low-maintenance way to get involved in real estate with next to none of the day-to-day monitoring required of direct property management. REITs are trusts that typically own multiple properties, and investors may purchase shares within the REIT. Typically, as the value of the property rises, so too do the values of your shares. If you’d like to dip a toe into real estate investing before diving in fully, a REIT is a great place to start.
Start with your own home
Owning the roof over your head is a basic step towards investing success. Even better, when you plan to live in the home you’re buying (rather than renting it out), you will likely benefit from lower mortgage rates and a cheaper down payment. The reasoning is straightforward – lenders see a loan to people purchasing the home they live in as an investment in people highly committed to the property.
Once you’ve owned your own house for a few years, you can look to purchase a new home to move into. By purchasing the new home with the intent to move in, you’ll be eligible to receive more favorable financing once again. After you’ve secured your new home, your first home is primed to be transformed into a rental property, and you can continue to see a return on your investment. If you’re seeking further support with buying a first, second, or third home, our website and our agents are full of information.
Cast a wide net
The best investment opportunity isn’t always going to be right underneath your nose. While there are logistical benefits to focusing locally with your investment, you may miss more profitable opportunities in another burgeoning market. Real estate is a long game, and patience tends to be rewarded. There’s no cause to rush a decision of this magnitude, so investigating other states and regions to find the property that best fits your situation is a process worth considering.
Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate Update
The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
The State of Oregon has added 43,700 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing a robust annual growth rate of 2.3%. Job growth picked up in the first quarter of 2018, with significant annual gains in Education & Health Services (+26,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+9,700), and Construction (+7,400). Oregon’s unemployment rate was 4.1%, matching the number seen a year ago and remaining in record low territory.
HOME SALES ACTIVITY
- First quarter home sales dropped by a modest 0.8% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 12,775 sales.
- Sales rose the most in Tillamook County, which saw a 33% increase compared to the first quarter of 2017. There were also noticeable increases in Wasco, Hood River, Jefferson, and Crook Counties. Home sales fell the most in Columbia, Klickitat, Marion, and Yamhill Counties.
- Year-over-year sales rose in 14 counties and dropped in the other 12 counties contained in this report.
- Sales were a bit of a mixed bag in the first quarter, but I still believe that lower sales velocities are due to extremely low levels of inventory in the region and not a decline in demand.
- The average home price in the region rose 9.9% year-over-year to $367,316. That number is 1.2% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017.
- Tillamook County again led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 54.2% more than a year ago. That said, it’s worth noting that it is a very small market, making it prone to substantial swings in average sale prices.
- All counties other than Hood River saw price growth over the first quarter of 2017. Half experienced significant, double-digit increases.
- The takeaway from this report is that, in aggregate, price growth continues to trend well above historic averages.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by 12 days when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but was up 9 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
- The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 88 days.
- Twenty-one counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to a year ago. One remained the same while four saw market time rise.
- Homes sold the fastest in Washington (36 days), Clark (41 days), and Multnomah (42 days) Counties.
The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Housing markets throughout Oregon and Southwest Washington continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy. Home sales remain very strong and, given that inventory levels are unlikely to increase substantially in the near term, sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat. Even with rising interest rates, demand continues to outstrip supply, so I have moved the needle a little more in favor of sellers.
Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
New tax legislation was signed into law at the end of 2017, and it included some significant changes for homeowners. These changes took effect in 2018 and do not influence your 2017 taxes. Here’s a brief overview of this year’s tax changes and how they may affect you*.
The amount of mortgage interest you can deduct has decreased.
Under the old law, taxpayers could deduct the interest they paid on a mortgage of up to $1 million. The new law reduces the mortgage interest deduction from $1 million to $750,000. These changes do not affect mortgages taken out before December 15, 2017.
The home equity loan deduction has changed.
The IRS states that, despite newly-enacted restrictions on home mortgages, taxpayers can often still deduct interest on a home equity loan, home equity line of credit (HELOC) or second mortgage, regardless of how the loan is labeled. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, enacted December 22, suspends from 2018 until 2026 the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans and lines of credit, unless they are used to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home that secures the loan.
The property tax deduction is capped at $10,000.
Previously taxpayers could deduct all the state, local and foreign real estate taxes they paid with no cap on the amount. The new law limits the deduction for all state and local taxes – including income, sales, real estate, and personal property taxes – to $10,000.
The casualty loss deduction has been repealed.
Homeowners previously could deduct unreimbursed casualty, disaster and theft losses on their property. That deduction has been repealed, with an exception for losses on property located in a federally declared disaster area.
The capital gains exclusion remains unchanged.
Homeowners can continue to exclude up to $500,000 for joint filers or $250,000 for single filers for capital gains when selling their primary residence as long as they have lived in the home for two of the past five years. An earlier proposal would have increased that requirement to five out of the last eight years and phase out the exclusion for high-income households, but it was struck down. Find out more about 2018 tax reform.
How does tax reform affect your plans for buying or selling a home?
*Please consult your tax advisor if you have any questions about how the new tax reform impacts you