How Zoning and Regulatory Costs Impact Housing Affordability

Posted on August 16, 2018 at 4:43 pm
Windermere Community Realty | Category: Finance, Market Trends, The Gardner Report | Tagged

Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

Posted in Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update byMatthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The State of Oregon has added 30,400 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing a reasonable annual growth rate of 1.6%. It is clear, however, that job growth in Oregon has started to taper, with the annual rate dropping below 2% in the early spring of this year. This is no great cause for concern as the state has essentially reached full employment, which tends to slow employment growth.

The Southwest Washington market area added 5,580 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.7%.

Oregon’s unemployment rate was 4.0% in June, marginally below the 4.1% rate seen a year ago. In Southwest Washington, the unemployment rate was measured at 5.3%, marginally lower than the year-ago rate of 5.4%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • Second quarter home sales dropped by a modest 2.8% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 17,156 transactions occurring.
  • Sales rose the most in Skamania County, which saw a 40% increase compared to the second quarter of 2017. There were also noticeable increases in Cowlitz, Klamath, and Linn counties. Home sales fell the most in Tillamook, Klickitat, Crook, Josephine, and Jefferson counties.
  • Year-over-year sales rose in 10 counties and dropped in the other 16 counties contained in this report.
  • Sales continue to be a mixed bag in the region. I am not overly concerned by the drop in sales in several counties as they are all small markets that are prone to substantial swings. Inventory remains tight and this can drag home sales lower.

 

HOME PRICES

  • The average home price in the region rose 7.9% year-over-year to $391,725. That number is 6.6% higher than the first quarter of 2018.
  • Clatsop County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 22.6% more than a year ago.
  • All but four counties saw price growth relative to the second quarter of 2017, with 10 of them experiencing double-digit increases.
  • The takeaway from this report is that, in aggregate, price growth has started to slow but remains above the long-term average.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by four days compared to the second quarter of 2017 and was down by 17 days from the first quarter of 2018.
  • The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 71 days.
  • Nineteen counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop or remain static when compared to a year ago. Seven counties saw market time rise.
  • Homes again sold the fastest in Washington (20 days), Clark (26 days), and Multnomah (26 days) counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Housing markets throughout Oregon and Southwest Washington continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy. Home sales remain solid; however, we are seeing some slowdown in prices, which I consider to be positive as affordability issues could start to taper. That said, housing inventory is still well below balanced-market levels. Sellers remain in the driver’s seat, but I am hopeful that inventory levels will start to increase, which will be a relief to home buyers. Because of this, the needle remains the same as last quarter.

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residentialmarket analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on August 10, 2018 at 10:30 am
Windermere Community Realty | Category: City of Portland, Finance, Market Trends, The Gardner Report

How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?

How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?

Posted on July 18, 2018 at 4:51 pm
Windermere Community Realty | Category: Finance, Market Trends, The Gardner Report

Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate Update

Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate Update

Posted in Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update byMatthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

The following analysis of the Oregon and Southwest Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The State of Oregon has added 43,700 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing a robust annual growth rate of 2.3%. Job growth picked up in the first quarter of 2018, with significant annual gains in Education & Health Services (+26,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+9,700), and Construction (+7,400). Oregon’s unemployment rate was 4.1%, matching the number seen a year ago and remaining in record low territory.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • First quarter home sales dropped by a modest 0.8% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 12,775 sales.
  • Sales rose the most in Tillamook County, which saw a 33% increase compared to the first quarter of 2017. There were also noticeable increases in Wasco, Hood River, Jefferson, and Crook Counties. Home sales fell the most in Columbia, Klickitat, Marion, and Yamhill Counties.
  • Year-over-year sales rose in 14 counties and dropped in the other 12 counties contained in this report.
  • Sales were a bit of a mixed bag in the first quarter, but I still believe that lower sales velocities are due to extremely low levels of inventory in the region and not a decline in demand.

 

HOME PRICES

  • The average home price in the region rose 9.9% year-over-year to $367,316. That number is 1.2% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017. 
  • Tillamook County again led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 54.2% more than a year ago. That said, it’s worth noting that it is a very small market, making it prone to substantial swings in average sale prices.
  • All counties other than Hood River saw price growth over the first quarter of 2017. Half experienced significant, double-digit increases.
  • The takeaway from this report is that, in aggregate, price growth continues to trend well above historic averages.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by 12 days when compared to the first quarter of 2017, but was up 9 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 88 days.
  • Twenty-one counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to a year ago. One remained the same while four saw market time rise.
  • Homes sold the fastest in Washington (36 days), Clark (41 days), and Multnomah (42 days) Counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Housing markets throughout Oregon and Southwest Washington continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy. Home sales remain very strong and, given that inventory levels are unlikely to increase substantially in the near term, sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat. Even with rising interest rates, demand continues to outstrip supply, so I have moved the needle a little more in favor of sellers.

 

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on May 2, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Windermere Community Realty | Category: Finance, Market Trends, The Gardner Report

Oregon and Southwest Washington Real Estate Market Update

 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The State of Oregon added 30,600 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 1.7%. Although job growth continues to slow, solid gains were still seen in the Construction (+7,400), Education & Health Services (+6,400), and Leisure & Hospitality (+5,200) sectors.

Oregon’s unemployment rate was in record low territory for all of 2017, diving to 3.6% in May of 2017, before drifting up to 4.2% by November. It is clear that the annual average unemployment rate for the whole of 2017 will be the lowest on record.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • Fourth quarter home sales dropped by a very modest 1.5% compared to the same period last year, with a total of 15,314 homes sold.
  • Sales rose the fastest in Tillamook County, which saw a 76.2% increase over the fourth quarter of 2016. There were also noticeable sales increases in Cowlitz, Lincoln, Coos, Clatsop, and Crook Counties. Home sales fell the most in Jefferson, Hood River, Skamania, and Yamhill Counties.
  • Year-over-year sales rose in 12 counties, remained static in one, and dropped in the other 13.
  • Although sales were a mixed bag, I still contend that any drop in sales was due to low levels of available inventory rather than declining demand.

HOME PRICES

  • The average home price in the region rose 7% year-over-year to $363,110. This is down 1.4% from the third quarter of 2017.
  • Tillamook County led the market with the strongest annual price growth. Homes there sold for 22.5% more than a year ago.
  • All counties other than Klickitat, Clatsop, and Lincoln experienced rising prices when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. The majority of counties saw significant,  double-digit increases.
  • This slowdown in price growth is likely due to buyers feeling priced out of the market.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the region dropped by 7 days from  the fourth quarter of 2016, but was up 13 days from the third quarter of this year.
  • The average time it took to sell a home in the region last quarter was 80 days.
  • Eight counties saw the length of time it took to sell a home rise compared to a year ago, but I still do not see this as troublesome. Listings are scarce during the winter months, and it’s not unusual for buyers to wait until spring in anticipation of more choices in the market.
  • Once again, homes sold the fastest in Washington and Multnomah Counties,  where it took an average of 33 and 34 days, respectively, for homes to sell.

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Housing markets throughout Oregon continue to benefit greatly from the healthy regional economy.

The Oregon/Southwest Washington housing market remains fairly strong and, given that inventory levels are unlikely to increase as we head toward the traditionally busier spring market, sellers remain firmly in the driver’s seat. That said, price growth and home sales have slowed, so I am leaving the needle in the same position as last quarter.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on February 6, 2018 at 12:10 pm
Windermere Community Realty | Category: Finance, Market Trends, The Gardner Report